Tuesday 4 September 2012

What does the reshuffle mean so far?

As far as the public is concerned the Cabinet reshuffle is about a bunch of nonentities replaced by another bunch of nonentities. Some might make reference to deckchairs and the Titanic. Either way it doesn't suggest any dramatic shift in policy direction mainly because there isn't much of a policy from whch to shift in the first place.
Ken Clarke's role is curious. Will he have a pass to get into the Treasury? What does this mean for Osborne's role? Is Ken Clarke there to placate the Lib Dems who are getting nervous that Osborne's Plan A is simply knackering the economy? Is Clarke going to put pressure on the Treasury to resist siren calls for tougher spending cuts, especially in local government?
It makes sense to keep Gove and Duncan Smith in their jobs. Whatever one's views of Gove he has been a one-man whirl of reform, far ahead of Cameron's own wishy-washy reform agenda. There is a real sense of direction of travel at the education department. Similarly Duncan Smith has made welfare reform his particular agenda and to move him now, just as highly complex welfare changes with the Universal Credit are being launched, would be madness.
What is much more puzzling is Lansley's replacement at health, Jeremy Hunt. He has one heck of a brief and is hardly a household name to be leading such a massive change in the NHS.
But unlike other PMs, Cameron has a very difficult task. Most governments are coalitions, of right and left. Cameron has to placate the right and left of his own party as well as those of the Liberal Democrats. Furthermore the appetite by the rank and file of both parties to carry on the Coalition is considerably less than those of its leaders. With its raison de'etre, reducing the deficit, on the rocks, the Coalition is drifting badly and it is hard to see the new line-up making much difference.

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