Tuesday, 26 July 2011

The GDP figures and Osborne's public spending plans

I was having lunch the other day with a distinguished ex-government public finance expert who had a couple of observations that stuck in my mind. One was: 'There's no way George Osborne will cut public spending. No government has. All the spending review does is to reduce the rate of spending growth.' His second was: 'I don't understand why he keeps banging on about spending cuts satisfying the international markets. Most of the borrowing to fund the deficit is from within the UK.'
I thought about this as the latest grisly GDP for the second quarter of the year was published today. At 0.2% it is down on the previous quarter however much the drop is blamed on the Royal Wedding and the Japanese tsunami. With public spending cuts starting to bite, there is a very strong likelihood the current quarter could even show a minus figure. The irony is that it is financial services which are offsetting the drop in government services spend.
Will there be a temptation to do some behind the scenes adjustment of spending levels in order to shore up the GDP? For it is likely - going back to the above comment - that public spending will anyway prove to be resilient to cuts, especially as demand keeps rising. George Osborne is increasingly relying on the mantra that his spending plans are saving the UK from being hammered by the international markets like Greece even though the figures may be all smoke and mirrors. But in two to three years time all this will just be history and no one will probably care anyway.

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